辉县部分景区地质灾害危险性评估及防治措施研究

为了给辉县景区减灾防灾提供地质依据,根据实际工程概况,研究了辉县部分景区地质灾害危险性预测评估及防治措施,预测评估了工程建设中、建设后可能引发或加剧地质灾害危险性,建设工程自身可能遭受已存在地质灾害危险性;评估了地质灾害危险性综合分区以及根据地质灾害危险性、防治难度和防治效益,对评估区适宜性作出评价,提出了防治地质灾害的措施和建议。     

黄河什四份子弯道冰期水流及冰塞特征研究

覆冰条件下,弯道水流固有的三维特性更为复杂,对河流弯道冰下水流特征及冰塞的研究有助于推进防凌减灾工作。依据2020年1月稳封期的原型观测数据,对黄河什四份子弯道冰下水流及冰塞特征进行了详细分析。结果表明,弯顶节点工程引起的回流是阻冰的重要条件,上游下潜的冰花因水动力不足及河势等因素影响发生堆积,冰塞在弯内形成并沿凹岸主槽逐渐向上游发展,同时,弯顶卡冰封河与下游较大的水流流速,促进了清沟的形成;入弯至弯顶区间,冰下水流流速垂线分布基本服从双对数分布规律;受凹岸冰塞及回流影响,纵向上,水流流速呈减小趋势,在弯顶附近开始恢复;径向上,河道主流被冰塞压迫并逐渐趋于凸岸,致使弯道主流易位,凸岸水流流速大于凹岸,清沟向凸岸偏移;弯道水流湍动能与雷诺应力主要在近底处存在较大的变幅,表明近底水流运动活跃,且二者大小与流速大小在径向与纵向分布上具有较好的一致性,受冰盖影响,水流湍动能沿水深近似呈"S"形分布,雷诺应力分布无明显规律。     

The perceived risk of the Line 5 Pipeline and spills under ice

Using the psychometric paradigm of risk in conjunction with surveys of the Michigan public (n = 638) and a regional planning organization (n = 65), we examine the perceived risk and concerns associated with underwater oil pipelines, the Enbridge Line 5 pipeline in particular, and oil spills under ice. The fate of Line 5 is heavily debated in Michigan, specifically the portion that traverses the Straits of Mackinac, which can be ice-covered for months. Scant literature examines how individuals perceive the risk associated with Line 5, its alternatives, or potential spills in open water or under ice. Here we identify considerable concern regarding both the pipeline and the potential for spills under ice on behalf of the public, and increased concern about spills under ice on behalf of the planning organization. Organization members' concerns are significantly predicted by beliefs about the difficulty in remediating spills, however not by beliefs about spills' likelihood, difficulty in detection, noticeability, or consequences. Our results identify the need to better examine and communicate the risks associated with underwater pipelines and spills, both in open water and under ice, as well as options for remediating oil captured under ice. Furthermore, we recommend the adoption of decision-making and risk governance processes that explicitly expand analysis of the social, economic and environmental tradeoffs of underwater pipelines such as Line 5.     

船体结构冰载荷反演方法及试验验证

冰载荷是影响船舶冰区航行期间结构安全的重要环境载荷。船舶的冰压监测通常采用应变传感器，合理地布放传感器是识别冰载荷的基础。通过对比船体外板结构试验中的冲击载荷和不同测试方案下的应变信号，确定了最佳应变传感器布放方案；采用Green核函数方法建立了船体外板结构应变冲击载荷间的响应关系，并对采集信号在噪声影响下反演的不适定性进行了分析；采用Tikhonov正则化方法克服了载荷反演过程中出现的数值不稳定问题；最后将试验中的响应用到载荷识别分析中，反演的载荷可以较为准确地反映冲击载荷的时域特征并且载荷识别精度良好。     

新型装配式冰场受力性能试验与模拟分析

为在2022年冬奥会期间将国家游泳中心泳池场地改造为冰壶场地,结合临时场地的新型制冰方式,提出了一种全装配式的冰壶场地及支承结构体系的构造作法.对此装配式冰场进行了现场试验测试和有限元受力性能分析,研究了装配式冰场的自振频率和振型特点,分析了冰场在使用荷载作用下的整体变形和各组件的应力水平,探讨了极端荷载作用下冰面受力、变形及开裂等关键问题.研究表明,所提装配式冰场方案具有较大刚度和承载力,能够满足冬奥会冰壶比赛对冰面的要求；此类冰场宜使用轻型浇冰车作业,大型浇冰车轮压引起的弯矩和剪力作用下冰面存在开裂的可能.     

Hydroxyl Group Separation Distances in Anti-Freeze Compounds and Their Effects on Ice Nucleation

Since the discovery of biological antifreeze glycoproteins (AFGPs), which can inhibit ice nucleation, there has been considerable interest in understanding their mechanisms and mimicking them in synthetic polymers. In this study, we used molecular dynamics simulations of modified polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) compounds to show that the hydroxyl (OH) group distance is a key factor in whether certain compounds promote or inhibit ice nucleation. A hydroxyl distance smaller than ~2.8 Å but greater than ~7.1 Å in modified PVA (MPVA) compounds was associated with the promotion of ice nucleation, while a hydroxyl group separation distance of approximately ~5.0 Å was correlated with a delay in ice nucleation, owing to changes in the energy of the system. Thus, these results may help explain some of the mechanisms of current known anti-freeze compounds and may have implications for designing new anti-freeze compounds in the future.     

基于温度冲击的冷冻靶氘氘冰层结晶生长行为研究

惯性约束聚变冷冻靶中氘氘（D₂）冰层的质量对聚变实验的成功与否起重要作用。目前文献报道的制备冷冻靶D₂冰层的方法并不具备好的可操作性，且技术、工艺不定型，制约了高质量冰层的形成。因此，本文采用将温度梯度、降温速率和温度冲击相结合的技术实现燃料冰层在靶丸内的均化。通过温度控制以及施加温度冲击可控地形成残留冰，并在残留冰的控制技术基础上，实现了高质量冰层的可控结晶生长。同时，研究了温度控制对靶丸内D₂冰层品质的影响和D₂冰层结晶生长的过程，并应用晶体生长动力学理论分析了D₂冰层结晶生长行为。从背光阴影图像中的D₂冰层亮环可知，D₂冰层均匀度为85.2%、厚度为40.35 μm、内表面粗糙度为2.15 μm。本方法拓宽了超低温下D₂冰籽晶控制、晶体生长技术，为DT冷冻靶中冰层均化打下了坚实基础，并形成了一定的技术储备。     

高寒列车转向架防冰涂料的研究

在高寒地区运行的列车转向架部位容易发生结冰现象，这在一定程度上对行车安全造成隐患。对于平滑表面而言，表面的接触角滞后与冰粘附强度呈现线性关系，即接触角滞后越小，冰粘附强度越低。基于这一基础理论，本文意在构建低滞后的光滑涂层，实现涂层的低冰粘附强度，从而达到易除冰的效果。研究选用 HDI三聚体型多异氰酸酯为固化剂，对比了 3种商品化具有低表面能特性的含氟羟基树脂应用于双组分防冰涂料的性能差异，并采用疏水性最强、防冰性能最优的氟硅树脂制备了综合性能优异的高寒列车转向架防冰涂料。     

Optimal resilient power grid operation during the course of a progressing wildfire

We study a two-stage stochastic and nonlinear optimization model for operating a power grid exposed to a natural disaster. Although this approach can be generalized to any natural hazard of continuous (and not instantaneous) nature, our focus is on wildfires. We assume that an approaching wildfire impacts the power grid by reducing the transmission capacity of its overhead lines. At the time when proactive decisions have to be taken, the severity of the wildfire is not known. This introduces uncertainty. In this paper, we extend previous work by more realistically capturing this uncertainty and by strengthening the mathematical programming formulation through standard reformulation techniques. With these reformulation techniques, the resulting two-stage, convex mixed-integer quadratically constrained programming formulation can be efficiently solved using commercial quadratic programming solvers as demonstrated on a case study on a modified version of the IEEE 123-bus test system with 100 scenarios. We also quantify the uncertainties through a second case study using the following three standard metrics of two-stage stochastic optimization: the expected value of perfect information, the expected result of using the expected value solution and the value of the stochastic solution.     

Assessing direct and indirect economic impacts of a flood event through the integration of spatial and computable general equilibrium modelling

In this paper we developed and tested an integrated methodology for assessing direct and indirect economic impacts of flooding. The methodology combines a spatial analysis of the damage to the physical stock with a general economic equilibrium approach using a regionally-calibrated (to Italy) version of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) global model. We applied the model to the 2000 Po river flood in Northern Italy. To account for the uncertainty in the induced effects on regional economies, we explored three disruption and two recovery scenarios. The results highlight that: i) the flood event produces indirect losses in the national economic system, which are a significant share of the direct losses, and ii) the methodology is able to capture both positive and negative economic effects of the disaster in different areas of the same country. The assessment of indirect impacts, in particular, is essential for a full understanding of the economic outcomes of natural disasters.